The S&P 500 hasn’t made a new 52-week low in over 1,000 trading days. Underneath, it’s a very different story. It’s been tough sledding for the average stock, but you’d never know it looking at the indices. Inflationary pressures are rising along with economic growth, and it’s getting harder and harder to make the case for lower rates. Investors don’t have to stretch for yield. Earnings season is about to pick up. What’s your mortgage rate?
1. The S&P 500 is on one of its longest streaks without a new 52-week low since 1950:
Source: @RyanDetrick
2. Under the surface, the average stock is near its weakest level against the Nasdaq 100 since 1990:
Source: Scott Rubner, Citadel Global Market Intelligence
3. Only about one in five S&P 500 stocks is trading above its 50-day moving average:
Source: State Street Investment Management Chart Pack, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of September 30, 2026
4. Single stocks are moving a lot more than the index:
Source: Scott Rubner, Citadel Global Market Intelligence
5. Surprisingly, the indices have held up despite four 10% declines in semiconductors since June:
Source: @bespokeinvest via the Daily Chartbook on 10/14/2026
6. Economic growth is accelerating, with manufacturing back in expansion and economic data beating expectations:
Source: State Street Investment Management Chart Pack, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of September 30, 2026
7. Pressure is growing on supply chains again. It’s difficult to grow the economy and stamp out inflation at the same time:
Source: Renaissance Macro via Bloomberg Odd Lots
8. ISM Services Prices Paid is near the top of its historical range:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return on 10/6/2026
9. At current rates, investors seem to find short-term government bonds quite attractive:
Source: State Street Investment Management Chart Pack, Bloomberg Finance L.P., based on State Street Investment Management calculations, as of September 30, 2026
10. Earnings season is here:
Source: Scott Rubner, Citadel Global Market Intelligence
11. The golden handcuffs are slowly coming off:
Source: @mikesimonsen
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The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of 500 large-capitalization U.S. companies. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index equally weights the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. The Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) is a modified market-capitalization-weighted index that includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. One-month at-the-money implied volatility is the market’s expected volatility over the next month, derived from the prices of options with strike prices near the current price. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) measures the performance of U.S.-listed companies engaged in the design, distribution, manufacture and sale of semiconductors. The Citi Economic Surprise Index measures how much U.S. economic data releases have come in above or below consensus expectations. Positive readings mean the data has been better than expected. The ISM Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey-based indicator of U.S. manufacturing activity published by the Institute for Supply Management. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s acyclical PCE inflation measures the contribution to PCE inflation from categories whose prices do not move closely with the business cycle. The non-health-care version excludes health care. PMI delivery times measure how long suppliers are taking to fill orders, as reported by purchasing managers in Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys. Higher readings indicate slower deliveries. The ISM Services Prices Paid Index, published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, measures the share of services-sector purchasing managers reporting higher prices for the goods and services they buy; readings above 50 indicate rising prices. A moving average is a statistical measure that smooths price data by calculating the average value over a specified period. Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises over time, resulting in a decline in purchasing power.
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