As was widely anticipated, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) annual revision revealed that their initial payrolls estimates overstated job growth. Large revisions have been common in the past and usually occur around periods of economic transition. The Federal Reserve is prioritizing labor over inflation. Could lower rates help keep housing costs in check? Who is paying the tariffs? AI Capex. A historic rally.
1. Large and consistent negative revisions are a concerning trend:
Source: Bloomberg Evening Briefing
2. When the economy is accelerating or decelerating, the payrolls survey sample can become unrepresentative of the population:
Source: @ernietedeschi
3. The labor market is at a tipping point. The Federal Reserve was faced with a similar picture when they began rate cuts last year:
Source: @gregdaco via the Daily Chartbook on 9/5/2025
4. Inflation is currently running around 3% annually:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
5. Core goods inflation (orange line) is rising while core services inflation (blue line) is no longer clearly falling:
Source: @greg_ip
6. With multifamily completions past their peak, rents are edging higher again. Perhaps lower rates will spur more construction:
Source: Lily Katz, Redfin via the Daily Chartbook on 9/9/2025
7. Analysts now expect a limited impact from tariffs on corporate profits:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
8. The capital intensity for the two sectors building AI infrastructure is as high as it’s been in decades:
Source: S&P Capital IQ and Verdad analysis
9. Prior to the current rally, the past twenty years have only seen gains of this magnitude in the wake of major economic shocks:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
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