As global markets broaden out, things are starting to go haywire over in factor land. It hasn’t been all sunshine and roses for technology investors. We’re starting to see signs of life in emerging markets. Inflation appears under control in Latin America, for the moment, and those economies are receiving a lift from rising commodity prices. The Chinese government has realized that too much competition can be a bad thing. As the U.S. and China decouple, the trade balance for the rest of the world is changing. Aluminum. AI compute.
1. U.S. markets are no longer the clear leader after reversing nearly two years of outperformance against international stocks:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
2. Investors are rushing to exit former market leaders:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
3. It’s been a rough six months for software investors:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
4. You could say they’re “re-emerging:”
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
5. Brazil’s central bank is understandably cautious about ensuring inflation is under control, leaving significant room to cut rates:
Source: Haver Analytics, DWS Investment GmbH, as of December 10, 2025.
6. Copper is one of several commodities that are key exports for Latin American economies:
Source: Bloomberg Odd Lots
7. Intense competition in China has eroded profit margins to unsustainably low levels:
Source: Deutsche Bank Research Institute
8. Especially as the government seeks to dial back subsidies:
Source: @gdp1985
9. It’s possible that ASEAN countries are serving as a middleman for Chinese exports to the U.S., but there’s a clear increase in goods going to Europe and Africa:
Source: Barclays via Bloomberg Odd Lots
10. Industrial commodities trading at a premium in the U.S. puts manufacturers at a substantial disadvantage:
Source: Bloomberg via @TheStalwart
11. The U.S. is far and away the leader in AI computing resources:
Source: Bloomberg Weekend
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