Anthropic is moving forward with its IPO and is expected to go public this month. IPOs, like a lot of things in markets right now, are a bit weird. Not to sound like a broken record, but this market is acting a lot like 2000. Inflation won’t go away, and paychecks aren’t keeping up. Voters head to the polls tomorrow. Prediction markets. From mega-IPO to mega-merger?
1. SpaceX’s record as the largest IPO in history may not last very long:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return on 10/27/2026
2. IPO proceeds are the highest since 2021, but split among far fewer companies:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return on 10/7/2026
3. A calm index with high single-stock volatility is a rare combination:
Source: Macro Risk Advisors via Jess Menton, Bloomberg via the Daily Chartbook on 9/30/2026
4. The dot-com peak is the only other time it was common for the S&P 500 to fall 1% or more on days when most of its stocks rose:
Source: @bespokeinvest
5. Core PCE inflation, which leaves out food and energy, is running near 3%:
Source: Edward Harrison, The Everything Risk on 10/29/2026
6. You don’t hear much about Truflation anymore:
Source: @DannyDayan5
7. Prices paid by services companies are rising at the fastest pace since 2022:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return on 10/19/2026
8. Real wages have fallen every month since April:
Source: @SteveRattner
9. Jobs are getting harder to find:
Source: @TheStalwart
10. Unhappy voters tend to take it out on the party in power, which may not be bad news for stocks:
Source: Bloomberg Markets Daily
11. Prediction markets reflected how confident investors were about who would win Brazil’s election:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return on 10/27/2026
12. The favorite lost, and Brazil’s markets paid for it:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return on 10/27/2026
13. One combined company seems like the natural end state for Elon Musk’s business empire:
Source: Bloomberg Weekend
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The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of 500 large-capitalization U.S. companies. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures inflation based on U.S. consumer spending, excluding food and energy, which are considered more volatile. The Truflation US CPI Inflation Index is an independent measure of U.S. consumer price inflation, updated daily from a broad set of real-time price data. The Consumer Price Index, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. The ISM Services Prices Paid Index, published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, measures the share of services-sector purchasing managers reporting higher prices for the goods and services they buy; readings above 50 indicate rising prices. Average Hourly Earnings, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the average hourly pay of employees on private nonfarm payrolls; real average hourly earnings adjust that figure for inflation. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is a monthly survey-based measure of U.S. consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions and their expectations for the next six months; its Present Situation Index reflects views of current conditions and its Expectations Index reflects the six-month outlook. A prediction market is an exchange where participants trade contracts that pay out if a future event occurs. A contract’s price is commonly read as the market’s implied probability of that event. The U.S. dollar/Brazilian real exchange rate is the number of Brazilian reais needed to buy one U.S. dollar. The Bovespa Index (Ibovespa) measures the performance of the most actively traded stocks listed on Brazil’s stock exchange, B3. A credit default swap (CDS) is a contract that compensates the buyer if a borrower defaults. Its spread, the annual cost of that protection, is a market measure of default risk. Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises over time, resulting in a decline in purchasing power.
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