Oil is back on the rise, reversing much of the post-ceasefire decline, while equity markets appear eager to move on. Pressure was building in financial markets prior to the ceasefire announcement. What’s going on with gold? Have tech stocks lost their luster? Tax refunds may provide welcome relief for tapped out consumers. The world will take all the energy it can get. Fed cuts. Manufacturing a recovery.
1. President Trump announced a blockade on Iranian oil tankers less than a week into the ceasefire:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
2. Stocks have recovered most of their losses and seem less sensitive to oil prices in recent days:
Source: Bloomberg Markets Daily
3. President Trump is known to take market feedback into consideration when making decisions:
Source: Deutsche Bank, @briansozzi via the Daily Chartbook on 3/23/2026
4. Despite being widely considered a hedge for times of crisis, the price of gold is down nearly 20% since the beginning of the war with Iran:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
5. At the beginning of a crisis, gold can serve as a source of liquidity:
Source: Morning Briefing
6. The NASDAQ’s valuation premium to the S&P 500 is at a five-year low:
Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, GMI, as of March 24th, 2026. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.
7. 2026 tax refunds are expected to set a record but will fall short of the inflation-adjusted levels seen prior to 2022:
Source: Bespoke via the Daily Chartbook on 3/27/2026
8. With inflation-adjusted sales in key categories turning over it appears that consumers could use the boost:
Source: Renaissance Macro
9. We believe the oil shock will further accelerate the transition to green energy:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
10. At the risk of repeating myself, the Fed is in a tough spot:
Source: Wells Fargo, @_joshschafer via the Daily Chartbook on 3/24/2026
11. Broad global manufacturing continues to trend in the right direction:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
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