Over the last few weeks we saw the market digest the largest IPO in history, an event which will, one way or another, historically capture the current environment. The AI capital investment cycles continues forward and surging memory prices have had all sorts of direct and indirect impacts on the economy and markets. While investors have clearly moved on from the Iran conflict, its impact in certain areas of the global economy remains. Kevin Warsh’s first press conference highlighted a strong emphasis on market-based data points to inform policy.
1. The AI capital investment cycle has transformed the world’s biggest companies from cash flow machines who bought back their own stock to capital intensive businesses looking for external funding. The recent SpaceX IPO encapsulates a wave of equity issuance coming in 2026. Corporate equity supply may exceed demand for the first time in over 20 years.
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
2. Market often concentrates at near-term peaks, recently this has come from the semi-conductor supply chain versus everything else.
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
3. This concentration has been driven by Bonafide strong reported earnings in the quarter, although that strength has been heavily skewed by memory chip makers historic price increases.
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
4. Memory paired with the sudden increase in Oil prices allowed S&P 500 profit margins to surge at a historically anomalous rate.
Source: @kevrgordon via the Daily Chartbook on 6/3/2026
5. Once retail investors get excited about any asset class it’s behavior often changes.
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
6. Perhaps some of the disinterest in Gold and other assets which were recently retail favorites is due to that fact that recently, exciting returns could be generated by some very large companies, namely the memory companies.
Source: Matt Cerminaro, Chart Kid Matt via the Daily Chartbook on 6/2/2026
7. Increasing access to leverage will continue to create outsized moves in the market
Source: Barclays via Bloomberg Odd Lots
8. Investors have returned to the dollar in the wake of the Iran conflict
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
9. The market has begun to punish the Mag 7 for seemingly being bullied by a bunch of commodity memory chip makers which years ago they might easily have re-created, but now are raising prices multiple hundred percent due to the Mag 7s own demand.
Source: https://x.com/LJKawa/status/2070229844172967964?s=20
10. These AI-driven memory price increases are now showing up in consumer hardware and Apple recently announced price increases on its products.
11. Outside of Tech, many businesses are still feeling the inflationary impacts of the Iran war.
12. Demand for AI models appears strong with room for continued adoption
Source: Daniel von Ahlen, TS Lombard via the Daily Chartbook on 6/4/2026
13. How long will US businesses and consumers dedicate most of their AI spend to cutting edge US models when Chinese models continue to improve and offer tremendous relative value.
Source: Citrini Research via Bloomberg Odd Lots
14. Japan’s market strength has been driven by powerful ongoing shareholder-friendly structural reforms which have materialized in better investor returns and still attractive relative valuation
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
15. Japan appears to have broken through its multi decade trend of a near deflationary economy.
Source: Financial Times via Chartbook a newsletter from Adam Tooze
16. If part of the recent Fed Chair’s nomination was due to him being “central casting”, that would align well with how the position has changed over the years.
Source: Bloomberg Markets Daily
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