Consumers may not like higher gas prices, but the broader economy is less exposed to energy than it once was. Interest rates may be just as important to watch, as bonds have once again failed to act as a hedge during a time of crisis. The Federal Reserve is in a tough spot, facing a potential inflation shock alongside a weakening labor market. The winners and losers of the Supreme Court’s recent tariff ruling. Brazil. Global earnings growth. Buy ratings.
1. Following the energy shocks of the 1970s, developed economies have made substantial progress in reducing the energy intensity of GDP:
Source: Tracy Alloway, Bloomberg Odd Lots
2. Interest rates have moved higher since the start of the war:
Source: Bloomberg Markets Daily
3. Markets are pricing in fewer rate cuts as rising energy prices lift inflation expectations:
Source: @augurinfinity via the Daily Chartbook on 3/12/2026
4. Stocks and bonds are once again moving in the same direction, though bonds have declined less:
Source: Bloomberg Markets Daily
5. The story of the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) was higher uncertainty, more risk:
Source: Federal Reserve via the Daily Chartbook on 3/18/2026
6. Total nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly fell in February:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
7. Taking the replacement tariffs into account, many of the most heavily tariffed countries received some relief, while others actually saw an increase in their effective tariff rate:
Source: Bloomberg Morning Briefing
8. Latin America’s largest country has begun easing interest rates, though the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB = Banco Central do Brasil) is expected to proceed gradually:
Source: Bloomberg Evening Briefing
9. Emerging markets are leading the way in earnings growth expectations:
Source: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity via the Daily Chartbook on 3/3/2026
10. Analysts are unusually bullish, make of that what you will:
Source: John Butters, FactSet via the Daily Chartbook on 3/19/2026
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