Changing Economics of Mag 7, U.S. Stocks Lagging, Home Purchases Falling Through

Written By Brendan Ryan, CFA

Despite record earnings per share, tech giants are dramatically increasing their spending—moves that could reshape the economics of their businesses. The short- and long-term impacts of new tariffs are expected to vary drastically by industry. U.S. equities are lagging global peers by the largest margin in over 30 years. Home-purchase cancellations are rising. And Hurricane Erin has temporarily given East Coast surfers waves on par with, or better than, Southern California.

 

1. The Magnificent 7 have led the market for good reason:

Line chart showing Big Tech EPS surging post-2022 compared with flat earnings for other companies.

 

2. But their massive increase in spending has the prospect of changing the economics of their business going forward:

Line chart showing capex-to-cashflow rising for Big 7 Tech and stabilizing for other companies since 2016.

 

3. Tariffs will effect different industries differently and take time to mitigate:

Area chart showing U.S. tariffs raising short-run prices most for metals, clothing, and crops.
Source Link

 

4. Despite the 8.3% gain in the S&P 500 this year, the U.S. is significantly underperforming other international markets.

Bar chart showing the S&P 500 underperforming global equities in 2025 by the widest margin since 1993.

Multi-line chart showing Latin America equities leading global peers year-to-date through July 2025.

 

5. More and more home purchases are falling through

Bar chart showing rising U.S. home purchase cancellations, reaching 15.3% in 2025.
Source Link

 

6. While Hurricane Erin is closing beaches across the East Coast surfers have reason to celebrate as surfing conditions exceed those across top spots in Southern California

U.S. map showing coastal swell sizes, with larger waves on the East Coast and California.
United States wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. Blue numbers represent size of waves in feet. Link

 

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