FIRESIDE CHARTS

Mortgage Rates, Earnings Estimates, Nbelievable
Mortgage Rates, Earnings Estimates, Nbelievable

The Federal Reserve’s restrictive interest rate policy often shoulders the blame for higher mortgage rates but it’s not that simple. Lower mortgage rates will improve housing affordability at the margin, but the housing market...

Changing Economics of Mag 7, U.S. Stocks Lagging, Home Purchases Falling Through
Changing Economics of Mag 7, U.S. Stocks Lagging, Home Purchases Falling Through

Despite record earnings per share, tech giants are dramatically increasing their spending—moves that could reshape the economics of their businesses. The short- and long-term impacts of new tariffs are expected to vary drastically by...

Chinese Export Growth, Market Breadth, Tariff Pressures
Chinese Export Growth, Market Breadth, Tariff Pressures

Recent data highlights a growing divergence between headline narratives and what’s happening beneath the surface. As U.S. imports from China decline, global trade appears to be rerouting through other countries. Market breadth continues to...

AI Spending, Trade Policy, Goods Prices
AI Spending, Trade Policy, Goods Prices

The past week brought additional clarity to a few major economic themes. AI investment from major tech firms isn’t slowing, it’s accelerating. Outside of the AI boom, the economy appears to be slowing. U.S....

Speculation, Hard Data, U.S. Dollar
Speculation, Hard Data, U.S. Dollar

U.S. equity markets are beginning to feel downright frothy as investors chase the rally and pile into some of the most speculative companies. While equity market gains began the year with broad gains, performance...

Global Equities, Tariffs, Interest Rates
Global Equities, Tariffs, Interest Rates

More than half of global equity markets are trading at new highs, and very few are trading at new lows. If the second Trump administration is anything like the first, buoyant markets may lead...

Independence Day, Exuberant Markets, Wealthy Americans
Independence Day, Exuberant Markets, Wealthy Americans

In a redux of the end of 2024, major U.S. equity markets are hitting new highs while leaving the average stock behind. Markets appear to be looking past the recent deterioration in economic data....

Iran, Oil, Oranges
Iran, Oil, Oranges

All eyes are on the Middle East, as the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Although the turmoil will affect global oil markets, the rise of shale oil has left the U.S....

Inflation, Tariffs, Weather
Inflation, Tariffs, Weather

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than economists expected in May, a promising sign during the first full month with some tariff impact. It’s possible that businesses are still in a “wait and...

Risk Premium, Interest Rates, One Big Beautiful Bill
Risk Premium, Interest Rates, One Big Beautiful Bill

We want to take a moment this Memorial Day Weekend to honor those who gave their lives in service and reflect on their enduring sacrifice. It’s a solemn reminder of the cost of freedom...

Trade, Labor, The G.O.A.T.
Trade, Labor, The G.O.A.T.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted slightly in the first quarter, although the report was heavily distorted by trade-related factors. Businesses and consumers alike are adjusting to tariffs, and they’re not very happy about...

GDP, China, Jobs
GDP, China, Jobs

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted slightly in the first quarter, although the report was heavily distorted by trade-related factors. Businesses and consumers alike are adjusting to tariffs, and they’re not very happy about...

Uncertainty, Earnings, Travel
Uncertainty, Earnings, Travel

Uncertainty surrounding trade is causing businesses to delay or cancel capital spending plans. The deteriorating earnings outlook likely isn’t helping either. Equity markets showed signs of stress in the week following “Liberation Day.”

Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs 
Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs 

Europe is in the spotlight after a strong start to the year for European equities. So far, the strong performance has been mainly driven by sentiment and currency. Chinese equities are also off to...

Europe, China, Excess Returns 
Europe, China, Excess Returns 

Europe is in the spotlight after a strong start to the year for European equities. So far, the strong performance has been mainly driven by sentiment and currency. Chinese equities are also off to...

Will Old Risks Return in the New Year?
Will Old Risks Return in the New Year?

2025 is off to an exciting start. Will the historical analogies hold true, or will 2025 be a year all its own? Companies are extremely optimistic about the future, but sometimes actions speak louder...

Inflation, Consumer Credit, DeepSeek
Inflation, Consumer Credit, DeepSeek

The first inflation print of the year came in hotter than expected. There may be more of the same ahead, according to both market and sentiment-based indicators. U.S. consumer credit saw its largest month-over-month...

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