Is the Strait of Hormuz open? Oil inventories aren’t infinite. Tokens keep getting cheaper, but there’s a shortage of compute. Is anyone besides venture capitalists actually paying for AI? The capital needs of the data center buildout are stressing markets, and investors are getting skittish. Buy the dip! El Niño.
1. No:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return on 10/19/2026
2. Some oil is still getting out, but it’s difficult and extremely expensive:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return on 10/19/2026
3. Global oil inventories are being depleted at a record pace:
Source: Andrew Cates, Haver Analytics via the Daily Chartbook on 9/25/2026
4. Compute prices have bucked the trend in token prices:
Source: Citadel Securities
5. Buyers are paying up for compute amid the current shortage. The pricing curve rewards anyone who can bring compute to market now:
Source: Citadel Securities
6. Four in five of the heaviest AI spenders are VC-backed:
Source:
7. Building AI takes a lot of capital:
Source: @RyanDetrick
8. Tech companies now pay more to borrow than other high-quality companies:
Source: Moses Sternstein, a16z via the Daily Chartbook on 10/16/2026
9. Investors are demanding higher returns to fund data centers:
Source: Alexander Altmann, Barclays Equity Technical Strategies via John Authers, Points of Return on 10/19/2026
10. Historically capital-light tech companies are levering up to fund a capex boom, and investors aren’t giving them a pass:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return on 10/22/2026
11. Semiconductors are under pressure:
Source: AIM
12. Buying the dip has worked for so long that investors are tripling down:
Source: Koyfin via the Daily Chartbook on 10/16/2026
13. A very strong El Niño is likely to last into early 2027:
Source: Bloomberg Markets Daily
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The Ornn Compute Price Index measures the hourly price to rent graphics processing units used for artificial intelligence computing, based on spot market transactions. The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index measures the usage-weighted average price paid per million tokens processed by large language models. The ICE BofA 15+ Year US Tech and Electronics Index measures the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds issued by technology and electronics companies with remaining maturities of 15 years or more. The ICE BofA 15+ Year AAA-A US Corporate Index measures the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds rated AAA through A with remaining maturities of 15 years or more. The 20-Year Treasury Yield represents the interest rate on U.S. government debt securities with a maturity of twenty years. A credit default swap (CDS) is a contract that compensates the buyer if a borrower defaults. Its spread, the annual cost of that protection, is a market measure of default risk. The NYSE Semiconductor Index measures the performance of the 30 largest U.S.-listed companies in the semiconductor industry. A moving average is a statistical measure that smooths price data by calculating the average value over a specified period. A credit spread is the difference in yield between a corporate bond and a government bond of similar maturity, reflecting the additional compensation investors require for credit risk. The price-to-earnings ratio compares a company’s or index’s share price with its earnings per share.
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