Brent Crude jumped to over $100 a barrel as bombs continue to fly across the Middle East. Oil, and by extension fuel prices, provide the most immediate and visible sign of disruption for consumers but it’s not the only commodity market that’s impacted. Private equity funds are taking longer to return capital and public market investors are starting to get skittish. Hard assets are back in vogue. Flight to safety. Narrative violation. The many faces of Claude.
1. The price has fallen a bit since, but when futures opened on Sunday night it marked the largest single-day increase in oil prices in both percentage and dollar terms:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
2. Middle Eastern countries are also large producers of natural gas:
Source: Bloomberg Morning Briefing
3. Natural gas is the primary feedstock for ammonia production, and ammonia is the key input for nitrogen fertilizers, such as urea:
Source: Bloomberg Markets Daily
4. Naturally, the same countries are major exporters of fertilizer:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
5. The lack of IPOs and M&A has made it harder for private equity funds to return capital to investors, but it may also reflect a maturing industry with less new money coming in:
Source: Bloomberg Evening Briefing
6. Public market investors have soured on the major publicly traded private equity firms:
Source: Bloomberg Markets Daily
7. Jamie Dimon’s comments may have proven prescient once again:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
8. In a world where AI can deploy digital assets at will, moats built on hard assets may prove more defensible:
Source: Bloomberg Markets Daily
9. Despite persistent Dollar weakness over the past year, the U.S. remains a safe haven in times of crisis:
Source: Bloomberg Evening Briefing
10. Strong demand for software engineers runs counter to narratives of obsolescence:
Source: Frank Flight, Citadel via the Daily Chartbook on 2/25/2026
11. Instead of worrying about whether AI will replace you, start thinking about what you could accomplish with a tool this powerful:
Source: Anthropic via the Daily Chartbook on 3/5/2026
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