ETF Watch from Un-Herd Newsletter
Here is a summary of the 3 ETFs from our investment universe with the highest 1-month trailing return and the factors that contributed to that performance.
(The source for all return figures is EOD Historical Data as of 12/13/2025)
This month the top performing ETFs were quite different while the bottom were mostly unified under the single theme of dependence on Chinese economic growth.
Top performers:
1. Silver (SLV) +16.10%
Precious metals have been in both the top and bottom performing ETF ranking in prior months. This highlights how strong this theme has become in markets as investors grapple with a weakening dollar, the prospect of sticky inflation, but lower impending short-term interest rates. Silver was the top performing ETF over the last month while the gold miners ETF (GDX) was ranked third.
2. Airlines (JETS) +10.08%
Capacity cuts stemming from the public struggles of low-cost airlines as well as Boeings regulatory troubles reducing aircraft production have finally materialized in higher fares and profits for the industry of late.
3. Gold (GDX) +8.09%
4. Biotech (XBI) +7.90%
Technically Biotech was the 4th best performing ETF (but top 3 if you lump the precious metals together). Coming into the year the outlook for the sector was bleak but recently, overall M&A activity has increased. Historically M&A has been a large driver of performance for these businesses and that is proving to be true now too. As a result, investors seemingly have increasingly changed their negative perception of the group.
The 3 ETFs with the lowest returns from our investment universe:
- Natural Gas (UNG) -13.11%
- VIX Short-term Futures (VIXY) -10.33%
- International Internet (FDNI) -6.78%
Natural Gas prices have rebounded over the year, and supply has remained strong on the back of generally increased US production as well as the prospect for future demand from the ongoing data center build out. Prices fell meaningfully in December, likely due to milder-than-expected weather as well as generally weak economic growth globally.
Chinese economic growth has remained weak despite a modest recovery over the past two years. This has weighed on Chinese equities broadly, specifically E-commerce businesses which make up a substantial portion of international technology.
China likely was a major driver for the majority of underperforming ETFs as the 4th worst performer was Clean energy, and China is the world’s largest supplier and buyer of all forms of clean energy. As a result, the fate of these industries are inexplicably tied to Chinese economic growth.
Our Decathlon Universe:
The AIM Decathlon strategies select from a carefully curated pool of ~230 ETFs representing nearly every asset class and geography — and everything in between.
Each ETF in the pool must offer distinct characteristics reducing overlap and increasing the opportunity for diversifying exposure.
We are independent and evaluate ETFs from any provider.
These are the five highest-returning ETFs drawn from the curated 230-ETF investment universe used in our Decathlon strategies. over the trailing 1-month period ending September 12th, 2025. We use this universe because we believe it captures all investable areas of the global markets while excluding derivatives, single-company ETFs, and overlapping exposures. We believe this makes it a better lens for highlighting the top five prevailing market themes than looking at all available ETFs on the market.
We are going to seek to post a summary like this each month as part of our newly launched monthly newsletter, Un-Herd. If you’d like to view our first issue of this newsletter and subscribe, click here.
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