The Federal Reserve is back in focus after delivering a 25 basis point rate cut for the third consecutive meeting. Recent comments from President Trump rattled prediction markets, yet neither frontrunner is Wall Street’s pick. The Fed can only directly set the overnight rate, a crucial distinction for housing markets. Housing markets still need support, though it’s increasingly unlikely that rates alone will deliver the needed relief. The inflation story has been remarkably consistent across the globe. Investors are bullish going into 2026. Trouble in the OpenAI ecosystem.
1. Financial conditions are currently quite accommodative:
Source: Nohshad Shah, Citadel via the Daily Chartbook on 11/24/2025
2. Kevin Hassett has been the presumed favorite for months but recent comments from President Trump made it clear that Kevin Warsh is a real contender:
Source: James Bianco
3. Wall Street believes that Christopher Waller would be the best choice to preserve independence while also delivering a dovish committee:
Source: @scottlincicome
4. Alternatively, it’s possible traders are listening to the Fed by keeping long-term rates steady, showing confidence in long-term growth and inflation expectations:
Source: Bloomberg Morning Briefing
5. Long-term rates haven’t come down, but it’s likely that the Fed’s actions have helped to compress the spread between treasuries and mortgages to a more normal level:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
6. If rates don’t close this gap the two remaining options are price or time:
Source: Pretium, @lisaabramowicz1 via the Daily Chartbook on 11/25/2025
7. Buyers are still getting cold feet:
Source: Lily Katz, Redfin via the Daily Chartbook on 12/3/2025
8. Inflation remains elevated across developed countries:
Source: Robin J. Brooks via the Daily Chartbook on 12/2/2025
9. There aren’t many bears out there:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
10. Investors are chasing risk into the end of the year:
Source: S&P Global via the Daily Chartbook on 12/9/2025
11. Perhaps, after rewarding Oracle fabulously for its contract with OpenAI, investors started to dig into the numbers a little more:
Source: John Authers, Points of Return
12. Some charts speak for themselves:
Source: Jim Reid – Deutsche Bank, @lisaabramowicz1 via the Daily Chartbook on 12/4/2025
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