ETF Watch from Un-Herd Newsletter
Here is a summary of the Top and Bottom ETFs from our investment universe with the highest and lowest 12-month trailing return and 1-month trailing return and the factors that contributed to that performance.
At the bottom of this post we explain why we use our investment universe, which is designed to represent the global investable universe.
(The source for all return figures is EOD Historical Data as of 1/13/2026)
12-Month Trailing Returns as of 1/13/2026
Top performers:
- Silver (SLV) +186.86%
- Gold (GDX) +170.67%
- Rare Earth and Strategic Metals (REMX) +122.51%
Bottom performers:
- Long volatility (VIXY) -43.70%
- Natural Gas (UNG) -33.84%
- Market Neutral Anti-Beta (BTAL) -22.08%
1-Month Trailing Returns as of 1/13/2026
Top performers:
- Silver (SLV) +36.41%
- Rare Earth and Strategic Metals (REMX) +21.12%
- South Korea (EWY) +15.79%
Bottom performers:
- Natural Gas (UNG) -13.46%
- Long volatility (VIXY) -10.54%
- Cybersecurity (HACK) -5.44%
Source: EOD Historical Data. These are the three highest- and lowest-returning ETFs over the stated period drawn from the curated 230-ETF investment universe used in our Decathlon strategies. We use this universe because we believe it captures all investable areas of the global markets while excluding derivatives, single-company ETFs, overlapping exposures, and ETFs with very low AUM. We believe this makes it a better lens for highlighting prevailing market themes than looking at all available ETFs on the market. Our strategies may or may not own one or more of these ETFs.
Heavy metals rock on
While the AI trade continued on unabated in 2025 they did not find themselves directly amongst the very highest performing ETFs in our pool. The top 10 ETFs in our pool were almost entirely within two categories:
- Metals & Mining
- Inexpensive foreign equity markets specifically within productions centers
Silver specifically followed by gold miners and rare earth metals were the best performing ETFs on the year. The next 4 best performing are squarely in the second theme: Korea, South Africa, Poland and Spain. The top 3 and Korea all had returns exceeding 100%.
As I mentioned, the AI trade was not directly involved amongst the top performing ETFs but surely played a hand in the demand for rare metals as part of the semiconductor production process as well as the general demand for alternative energy production to power all the planned data centers. Korea was squarely in the crosshairs of the AI theme as memory-related stocks were amongst the best performing in the market and constitute a large portion of Korean equities. Additionally fears of a “hotter” US economy have propelled the store of value commodities such as gold.
Foreign stocks generally performed very strongly in 2026 with emerging markets exceeding developed. Amongst the top performing in our universe, outside of Korea, the unifying themes are Metals and Mining (South Africa) and inexpensive emerging markets (Poland, Vietnam, Korea as well). Spain was amongst the poorest performing European economies and cheapest markets, so it was highly levered to the change in sentiment.
Over the last month the top performing ETFs are strikingly similar to the best performers over the last year. Taxes may play a role as investors held their winners through year end, but clearly the narrative driving these sectors has not changed. Four of the top five directly overlap (Silver, Rare Earth Metals, Korea and Gold miners). While the fourth best performer, Aerospace and Defense, highlights the continued global focus on conflict resolution and further US aggression into Venezuela.
The worst performing ETFs for the last month were slightly less unified but generally defensiveness was punished on the margin. Although it is more of a structured product than an investment category, VIXY was the worst performing ETF in our universe for the year highlighting that despite one short surge in volatility in April, it was generally not a volatile year in equity markets. Natural gas was the next worst performing ETF as it faced both continued strong supply via US energy production and weaker demand from a seasonally mild winter thus far. The majority of the weakest performers faced relatively minor declines in 2025 but were nearly entirely risk-off or lower risk securities.
Just like with the top performers over the last month, the bottom performers are quite similar with VIXY and Natural Gas as the top two worst performers. The most notable change is a furthering of weak trends within the Software-based technology ETFs with Cybersecurity, Software and Services and Cloud Computing rounding out the top five worst performing ETFs over the last month. Despite strong returns overall, Technology investors have been universally bullish on hardware but rather pessimistic towards software as AI looks to be a threat versus a driver of increased business as it has been with hardware.
Our Decathlon Universe:
The AIM Decathlon strategies select from a carefully curated pool of ~230 ETFs representing nearly every asset class and geography — and everything in between.
Each ETF in the pool must offer distinct characteristics reducing overlap and increasing the opportunity for diversifying exposure.
We are independent and evaluate ETFs from any provider.
These are the three highest- and lowest-returning ETFs drawn from the curated 230-ETF investment universe used in our Decathlon strategies over the trailing 12-month and trailing 1-month period ending January 13th, 2026. We use this universe because we believe it captures all investable areas of the global markets while excluding derivatives, single-company ETFs, and overlapping exposures. We believe this makes it a better lens for highlighting the top five prevailing market themes than looking at all available ETFs on the market.
We post a summary like this each month as part of our monthly newsletter, Un-Herd. If you’d like to view our last issue of this newsletter and subscribe, click here.
Disclosures for blog post:
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This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not in any sense constitute a solicitation or offer for the purchase or sale of a specific security or other investment options, nor does it constitute investment advice or tax advice for any person. The material may contain forward or backward-looking statements regarding intent, beliefs regarding current or past expectations. The views expressed are also subject to change based on market and other conditions. The information presented in this report is based on data obtained from third party sources. Although it is believed to be accurate, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness.
The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from third parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
As with all investments, there are associated inherent risks including loss of principal. Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Sector and factor investments concentrate in a particular industry or investment attribute, and the investments’ performance could depend heavily on the performance of that industry or attribute and be more volatile than the performance of less concentrated investment options and the market as a whole. Securities of companies with smaller market capitalizations tend to be more volatile and less liquid than larger company stocks. Foreign markets, particularly emerging markets, can be more volatile than U.S. markets due to increased political, regulatory, social or economic uncertainties. Fixed Income investments have exposure to credit, interest rate, market, and inflation risk. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss.
The Decathlon strategies utilize artificial intelligence (AI) in the decision-making process, introducing inherent risks. The AI’s lack of predictability, reliance on historical data, and sensitivity to market volatility may impact investment outcomes. Technology-related risks and the dynamic nature of market conditions further contribute to potential uncertainties. Ongoing monitoring and adjustments to the AI model are essential. Investors should recognize the limitations of AI, seek professional advice, and carefully assess their risk tolerance and financial situation before making investment decisions. AIM utilizes AI in the decision making process but AI does not make final decisions for any AIM strategy.
Please contact your AIM Regional Consultant for more information or to address any questions that you may have.
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